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📊 Overall Model Performance
Total Predictions
33601
25180 with actual results
Avg BA Error
0.205
Predicted 0.216 / Actual 0.222
Avg Rank Correlation (ρ)
0.116
DFS rank signal (>0.3 = meaningful)
📈 Predicted vs. Actual Batting Average Over Time
When the two lines track closely, the model is well-calibrated. A persistent gap means the model is systematically over- or under-projecting.
🏆 DFS Rank Correlation (Spearman ρ)
0.116
avg ρ over 96 days
WEAK SIGNAL
ρ ≥ 0.30 Strong — model adds clear DFS value
ρ 0.15–0.29 Moderate — some signal above noise
ρ 0.00–0.14 Weak — marginal improvement over random
ρ < 0.00 Negative — model is hurting rankings
Spearman ρ measures whether the model's rankings match actual outcomes — the core DFS question. Computed per game day (min 5 batters with results), then averaged across all days.
🎯 Hit Rate by Confidence Tier
Tier Description Predictions % of Total Avg Predicted BA Avg Actual BA Avg Error
High Confidence Predicted BA ≥ .300 1818 7.6% 0.343 0.268 0.222
Medium Confidence Predicted BA .250-.299 4044 16.9% 0.271 0.259 0.205
Low Confidence Predicted BA < .250 18065 75.5% 0.192 0.224 0.204
A well-calibrated model shows clear separation across tiers and lower error in High Confidence picks. If errors are similar across all tiers, the confidence signal isn't adding value.
🎰 Game Prediction Accuracy by Confidence Band
Min Confidence Games Correct Accuracy vs. 50% Baseline
≥ 50% 1194 645 54.0% +4.0%
≥ 55% 847 471 55.6% +5.6%
≥ 60% 540 310 57.4% +7.4%
≥ 65% 313 184 58.8% +8.8%
≥ 70% 137 76 55.5% +5.5%
Higher-confidence predictions should be more accurate. If accuracy drops at higher thresholds, the model may be overconfident. Target: ≥55% accuracy beats a coin flip.
💥 Home Run Prediction Calibration
Expected HRs
2024.5
Actual HRs
2484
Calibration Ratio
0.81x
Target: 0.8–1.2x
Avg HR Probability
8.0%
📐 Brier Score
Brier Score
0.0653
Lower is better (0 = perfect)
Brier Skill Score
-1.79%
Improvement over always predicting .250 baseline
Sample Size
23927
Predictions analyzed
📊 Calibration by Predicted BA Range
Predicted Range Count Avg Predicted Avg Actual Calibration Error
0.00-0.20 10079 0.167 0.216 0.049
0.20-0.25 7986 0.223 0.234 0.011 ✓
0.25-0.30 4044 0.271 0.259 0.012 ✓
0.30-0.35 1291 0.319 0.266 0.054
0.35+ 527 0.400 0.274 0.126
Mean Absolute Calibration Error: 0.051
🎯 Game Outcome Summary
Total Games
1194
With results
Correct
645
54.0% win rate
Brier Score
0.2535
Probabilistic accuracy
Avg Confidence When Correct
60.6%
Avg Confidence When Wrong
59.8%