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📊 Overall Model Performance
Total Predictions
69225
51163 with actual results
Avg BA Error
0.206
Predicted 0.214 / Actual 0.223
Avg Rank Correlation (ρ)
0.106
DFS rank signal (>0.3 = meaningful)
📈 Predicted vs. Actual Batting Average Over Time
When the two lines track closely, the model is well-calibrated. A persistent gap means the model is systematically over- or under-projecting.
🏆 DFS Rank Correlation (Spearman ρ)
0.106
avg ρ over 197 days
WEAK SIGNAL
ρ ≥ 0.30 Strong — model adds clear DFS value
ρ 0.15–0.29 Moderate — some signal above noise
ρ 0.00–0.14 Weak — marginal improvement over random
ρ < 0.00 Negative — model is hurting rankings
Spearman ρ measures whether the model's rankings match actual outcomes — the core DFS question. Computed per game day (min 5 batters with results), then averaged across all days.
🎯 Hit Rate by Confidence Tier
Tier Description Predictions % of Total Avg Predicted BA Avg Actual BA Avg Error
High Confidence Predicted BA ≥ .300 3024 6.2% 0.339 0.264 0.221
Medium Confidence Predicted BA .250-.299 7573 15.6% 0.271 0.253 0.204
Low Confidence Predicted BA < .250 37940 78.2% 0.194 0.229 0.206
A well-calibrated model shows clear separation across tiers and lower error in High Confidence picks. If errors are similar across all tiers, the confidence signal isn't adding value.
🎰 Game Prediction Accuracy by Confidence Band
Min Confidence Games Correct Accuracy vs. 50% Baseline
≥ 50% 2394 1267 52.9% +2.9%
≥ 55% 1728 938 54.3% +4.3%
≥ 60% 1111 626 56.3% +6.3%
≥ 65% 640 361 56.4% +6.4%
≥ 70% 289 154 53.3% +3.3%
Higher-confidence predictions should be more accurate. If accuracy drops at higher thresholds, the model may be overconfident. Target: ≥55% accuracy beats a coin flip.
💥 Home Run Prediction Calibration
Expected HRs
3924.6
Actual HRs
5197
Calibration Ratio
0.76x
Target: 0.8–1.2x
Avg HR Probability
7.7%
📐 Brier Score
Brier Score
0.0659
Lower is better (0 = perfect)
Brier Skill Score
-2.24%
Improvement over always predicting .250 baseline
Sample Size
48537
Predictions analyzed
📊 Calibration by Predicted BA Range
Predicted Range Count Avg Predicted Avg Actual Calibration Error
0.00-0.20 20651 0.170 0.223 0.052
0.20-0.25 17289 0.223 0.237 0.014 ✓
0.25-0.30 7573 0.271 0.253 0.018 ✓
0.30-0.35 2228 0.319 0.263 0.057
0.35+ 796 0.394 0.266 0.128
Mean Absolute Calibration Error: 0.054
🎯 Game Outcome Summary
Total Games
2394
With results
Correct
1267
52.9% win rate
Brier Score
0.2568
Probabilistic accuracy
Avg Confidence When Correct
60.8%
Avg Confidence When Wrong
60.1%